Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

The analysis comes from researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, who looked at excess mortality from March 2020 through May 3, 2021, compared it with what would be expected in a typical non-pandemic year, then adjusted those figures to account for a handful of other pandemic-related factors.

While another surge remains possible, especially with new, more infectious variants on the horizon, the number of new daily infections in the current wave appears to have hit a high in the past week or two and has been steadily declining in most states since, the researchers say.

Medical advances have reduced the infection fatality rate in the U.S. But experts warn that indoor gatherings, cold temperatures and pandemic fatigue augur dark months ahead.

Two new peer-reviewed studies are showing a sharp drop in mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The drop is seen in all groups, including older patients and those with underlying conditions, suggesting that physicians are getting better at helping patients survive their illness.

The nation still sees more than 20,000 new cases on average a day, a number that's barely budged for weeks. Forecasters say we're looking at tens of thousands more deaths this summer.

Some states are moving forward, but many would be wise to wait, according to experts at the University of Washington. Here's their estimate for each state's safe date to reopen.

The Trump administration's strategy for ending the current wave of coronavirus infections relies on a model that appears to count on several important assumptions. We look at why that matters.