It’s not often that you get a peek into the future. But climate scientists said Washington state has glimpsed into the crystal ball with low snowpack, warming temperatures and low stream flows.
One such glimpse happened in 2015.
That’s when Washington had its lowest snowpack on record, which led to hundreds of thousands fewer sockeye returning, major crops that didn’t do well and millions of dollars spent on fire suppression.
“ From a weather nerd perspective, (2015) was something I never expected to see in my lifetime,” said Guillaume Mauger, Washington’s state climatologist.
By the 2070s or 2080s, these conditions could be normal, Mauger said at the Northwest Power and Conservation Council’s August meeting.
In Washington state, climate change is expected to bring lower stream flows, warmer winter temperatures and less snowpack in lower elevations, he said.
As for weather conditions this winter, it’s highly likely there will be a “very strong” El Niño. Mauger noted that “super El Niño” isn’t a technical term and “very strong” is.
Forecasts show a more than 80% chance there will be a “very strong” El Niño at least from October through December. That happens when the Pacific Ocean’s surface water near the equator is more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal.
For the Northwest, El Niños can mean higher winter temperatures and less snowfall. However, there isn’t much data to compare to for this type of El Niño season, Mauger said.
“ The last big one that was in this ballpark was 1997, 1998,” he said. “ We just don't have a big sample size of El Niños, especially not this big.”
The late ’90s “record-breaking” El Niño brought warm temperatures and low snowpack, according to a technical report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Climatic Data Center.
This year, Washington leaders have already declared a statewide drought.
Warm winters, dry springs and dry summers are expected to increase as the climate changes, Mauger said.
Read the audio transcript here.
